1. IS MOBILE SUCH A BIG DEAL?

In 1997, the internet was the biggest thing on earth.

And the killer app of the internet, the gurus said, was email.

But what exploded amongst people in Asia and Europe in 1997?

Not email.

It was their discovery, unpromoted by mobile network operators, that they could send each other 160 character SMS texts.

Unlike email, texts came without pictures.

And without attachments.

And unlike emails, each text cost money.

But they went instantly to their family, boyfriend or girlfriend.

At any time of day.

Or night.

In corporate fraud trials, the lawyers go for the emails. But in divorces, it’s the texts that contain all the intimate details.

The need for always on, always connected, always there has become critical for ordinary people.

What will change next?

How will the way people use computers change as they start to carry powerful ones with them all the time?

Probably as much as the way computers changed when they stopped being the size of rooms and started fitting on desks.

	She’s watching TV on her cellphone.
	She’s checking her friends’ GPS using a cellphone.
	He’s selling his catch using his cellphone.
	Convergence is finally happening.

When this happened in the seventies and eighties, it wasn’t just about a change in size.

People started doing things that were thought uncomputery at the time.

Things like writing letters and playing games.

And drawing pictures.

And installing screensavers and wallpapers.

As computers move into phones, computing will change yet again.

And the new uses of the computer will feel as weird as the idea of listening to a song on one did in 1980.

Phones are smarter

Things will also change because phones are more ‘conscious’ than desktop computers.

Thanks to GPS location, accelerometers and compass functions, a modern cellphone increasingly knows where it is, and what it’s looking at.

Soon, cellphones will know other things such as the temperature, and how many of your friends’ phones are close.

They will feel less like a tool, and more like part of your brain.

The change is already happening

The shift from desktop computers to cellphones is already happening:

• More and more tweets come from mobile devices. If they had to go home to tweet, most people wouldn’t bother.
• No one would organize a party on Facebook if they could only check Facebook at home.
• People are starting to watch TV on cellphones - even when they are at home. The phone is in their hand. The remote is buried somewhere in the sofa.
• If indeed they still have a remote, as phones can now control TVs, music systems and air conditioners.
• Ten years ago, most people did most of their writing in word processors. Today, Japanese professors complain that students now routinely write and submit their dissertations from cellphones.

However they communicate, consumers do it more and more from cellphones.

Cellphones have small screens.

And small keys.

But they are always with you, always connected, and always on.

For most people, that is what matters.

But isn’t social networking the bigger trend?

Many would argue that social networking has been the biggest computing trend of the past few years.

And in many ways they are right.

If voice and text were all people wanted, cellphones would be getting smaller. But they have been getting bigger ever since 2000. It’s clear evidence that consumers want more from their phone.

It’s just that mobile devices are the things that make social networking so compelling and so useful.

Social networking only exploded around the US and Europe in 2006/7 as mobile got going.

‘Some analysts estimate that by 2015, almost all shipped handsets will be smart.’

THE ECONOMIST

In Korea, where telecoms are more advanced, social networking was alive and well in 2002.

Mobility is the underlying force behind social networking.

Is it just phones?

No. The broader trend is about any pocketable device that’s always with you and always connected.

At the start of the 2010s, all sorts of small, mobile devices are appearing:

• The Nintendo DS is now wifi-capable.
• The PlayStation Portable is connected too.
• Apple’s iPod Touch is a powerful wifi-connected computer that just happens to play songs.
• The latest tablet computers are always connected, and becoming easier to use.
• The two kilo laptop of the 1990s has become the lightweight netbook of today.
• That netbook’s typical eight-hour battery life and built-in cellular connection make it a truly mobile laptop.
• Meanwhile the rapid falls in prices continue. The computing power that was state of the art in 2000 will soon be in a $30 handset.

It will happen fast

The speed of change can be seen from the iPhone app store. Three billion apps have been downloaded from it since it opened in 2008.

Nokia, BlackBerry and other handset makers have also opened stores.

The speed of change can also be seen from the rate of sale of smartphones.

Usage of the BBC’s mobile iPlayer app peaks at midnight. It’s under-the-covers TV.

At the height of the 1990s internet boom, there were 200 million computers in total connected to the internet.

180 million smartphones were sold in 2009 alone.

And it will be huge

Half the people on the planet carry a cellphone with them all the time.

Nearly all use them constantly.

In the last boom, investors were valuing websites at $1000 per pair of visitor eyeballs. Beware of similar delusions this time round.

It is therefore likely that cellphones will become consumers’ main computing device of the future.

There will be problems along the way

Of course, there are still many problems to be solved in the mobile revolution.

Programming interfaces for phones are complex and diverse.

It’s difficult to write apps for them.

The seven-patty burger created by McDonalds Japan to launch Windows 7 may have left diners bloated. But Windows 7 is part of the trend towards faster, more agile computing systems.

And the risk of piracy is high.

But it was the same in the early days of the internet.

Nothing quite worked. Data speeds were perhaps 1000th of what they are today, and the connectors and pipes kept breaking.

But it happened anyway. And the same will happen now.

This book

This book is for any telecoms executive, innovative marketer or bedroom coder dreaming of riches beyond the possibilities of avarice.

It is intended to be a sober reflection on what is going on.

When the irrational exuberance of the next boom starts, reach for it.