9. WARNINGS FOR MOBILE ENTREPRENEURS

In early 2000, the stockmarkets crashed. Venture capital dried up.

The speculators who had hoped to sell on their dotcom shares to greater fools headed for the hills.

And Generation X looked at their worthless corporate shares and options. And realized they had not been paid for two years.

Most entrepreneurs lost everything in the last internet boom.

Here are some of the traps this time round:

Don’t believe the hype about faster data speeds

It’s more likely that demand for mobile data will grow exponentially rather than the capacity available to transmit that data.

So data transmission speeds in the future may be not faster, but slower.

The winners in the first internet revolution planned for slow data speeds, on the principle that you shouldn’t have to wait for their services.

Fast loading ugly sites like CraigsList survived.

Slow loading beautiful sites didn’t.

Don’t believe in 3G

Don’t assume that because you are designing apps for 3G phones that you can rely on 3G data speeds. Telecoms companies in most countries have licences committing them to 3G voice, not 3G data.

And remember the 3G voice spec in most countries is for reception outdoors.

QR codes - barcodes which reveal a web or email address when scanned by a cameraphone - are part of everyday life in Japan. But they are taking longer than expected to spread around the world.

In many countries, 3G voice doesn’t work indoors.

Don’t ignore the fine print

When an internet service provider promises a fast download speed, download speed is what they mean.

Upload speeds can be less. A lot less.

But keep your ear to the ground

3.9G should appear first in Japan in about 2012. It will give data speeds to cellphones of up to 100 megabits a second – the same as today’s state-of-the-art fixed line fibreoptic broadband.

Don’t manufacture garbage

Most software companies don’t die through a lack of innovation. They die by flooding their userbase with buggy software releases.

Don’t replace your winning version 1.0 app with a rushed beta 2.0 app.

‘Permanent Beta’ only works if you’re 99.9% right.

‘Permanent Alpha’ is corporate suicide.

Don’t have teething problems

In the nineties, most e-commerce sites lost most of their customers between the catalog server and the e-commerce server. They never came back.

Amazon worked from day one. And the efficiency of the logistics in their Seattle warehouse was stunning from day one too. Even in 1997 they never sent you the wrong stuff, and were the only e-commerce site that didn’t.

An airline takes a year to recover from launching a new terminal and losing everyone’s bags. An e-commerce operation is dead by then.

Don’t offer pointless updates

Don’t you get annoyed when an app keeps asking you to download a pointless update? So don’t do it with your app.

Don’t delay

1992 saw the announcement of the satellite phone - a portable phone that connected you to the world via fifty geostationary satellites.

It was an inspiring new idea.

But by the time it appeared seven years later, most of the world was covered by GSM.

Unlike satellite phones, GSM phones worked indoors.

Mobile data networks are starting to overload in San Francisco and New York.

And GSM phones were tiny, whereas satellite phones were still the size of a brick.

Good ideas have a sell-by date.

Don’t make it complex

You wouldn’t buy a TV that required you to press CTRL-ALT-DEL to switch it on. Or a fridge. Or a car. So why copy the outdated protocols of 1970s computing when you design your software?

Don’t lose your objectivity

Be absolutely clear what the central consumer benefit is that you offer, and why only you can deliver it. Keep listening to real consumers, rather than your irrationally exuberant co-workers.